The recent market activity witnessed by Bitcoin (BTC) exemplifies the need for fresh buyer participation, as new addresses still lag far behind the 350,000 figure crucial in retaining strong bullish momentum.
As tweeted by Burak Kesmeci on X, recent data highlights this figure is a major pivot between bullish and bearish trends.
350K New Addresses: The Key Bull-Bear Level
Analysis over the past six years shows that 350,000 new Bitcoin addresses often marks a dividing line between market phases. When the number of new addresses dips below this level, the market tends to turn bearish.
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Historical data shows this pattern in 2018, when Bitcoin fell from $19,000 to $6,000; in 2021, when it dropped from $64,000 to $30,000; and in 2024, when it decreased from $74,000 to $49,000.
In June 2024 the number of new addresses dropped to 210,000 and then increased to 349,000 on October 14, 2024. Pulling back to 294,000 it has since indicated a need of more new investors to push market momentum.
To continue a strong bullish trend and reflect increased investor interest, we consider the 350,000 milestone as a major one and one that once reached, may lead to a market upturn.
Impact of Spot ETFs on Address Creation
The launch of Spot Bitcoin ETFs in 2024 has impacted address growth. With institutions like BlackRock managing Bitcoin through pooled addresses, the number of new individual addresses remains lower.
ETF investors are often represented by a single wallet address, reducing the growth rate of new addresses. As a result, achieving 350,000 new addresses will require more retail investors, who are key to sustaining market growth and overcoming potential resistance.
BTC Netflow and Holding Trends
According to IntoTheBlock data, the latest BTC net flow data reveals mixed market behavior. Over the past week, net flow dropped by 338.80%, indicating substantial BTC outflows from exchanges, suggesting increased long-term holding.
Over 30 days, net flow rose by 329.48%, reflecting selling pressure or profit-taking. However, over the last 90 days, net flow decreased by 139.33%, showing an overall trend of BTC moving off exchanges.
As Bitcoin’s price shoots up to $67,523 before stabilizing around $67,000, this net flow behavior mirrors what is happening in the market. Long-term holding is supported by net outflows but it’s important to beat the 350,000 new address mark to continue with stronger bullish momentum.
