- Bitcoin miners exiting the cycle may signal a market bottom, paving the way for fresh interest
- And yet, specific conditions must align for a confirmed bull rally
A week of bearish downturn saw Bitcoin [BTC] fall below $61k from its previous $65k resistance. However, at press time, optimism seemed to be brewing in the market, with the crypto valued at close to $62k.
The second week of Q4 might see a price correction though, especially as profit-takers cash in on their gains and exit the cycle. Among them are miners who have been capitulating as BTC nears $62K.
However, unless the bottom is fully exhausted, it might be hard for bulls to trigger a sustained rally.
Miners’ exit may hint at a market bottom
On the daily price chart , BTC’s weekly movement mirrored mid-August’s price action when a rejection near $65k halted a potential bull run.
During that time, miners exited the cycle after five consecutive days of downward pressure, with their holdings dropping from 1.817M to 1.814M.
Source : CryptoQuant
A similar trend was seen recently too. Over the past week, as Bitcoin retraced from $65k to $60k, miner reserves noted a significant decline, dropping from 1.814M to 1.811M at press time.
Typically, the departure of weaker investors often leads to a more stable market, allowing stronger hands to accumulate positions at favorable prices.
If this trend holds, miners breaking even may signal a market bottom. As weak hands exit to lock in profits, it could present new buyers with ideal dip-buying opportunities.
However, as noted earlier, for a bullish cycle to begin, flipping $61k into support is crucial. While miner exits can help confirm this support, other conditions must also align.
LTHs have confidence in Bitcoin bulls
Unlike miners capitulating to cut their losses before the market dips further, holders with Bitcoin for more than 155 days appear to be selling at profit.
The LTH SOPR recently made a higher high. Historically, such movements have driven positions into FOMO and fueled expectations for future gains in the next cycle.
Source : BGeometrics
If LTHs avoid panic selling – which seems likely – a near-term price correction might take hold. This could allow the $61k resistance to flip into support, with bulls then targeting the next resistance at $64k.
In short, Bitcoin’s drop from $65k to $60k was key in shaking off weak hands, establishing $61k as the next support level.
This decline filtered out less committed investors, allowing stronger holders to accumulate positions.
However, while the figures indicated a solid foundation, AMBCrypto investigated further to determine if the recent rally was genuine or just a short squeeze.
BTC longs are regaining control
Over the past four days, long positions have regained dominance in the derivative market, preventing short sellers from effectively shorting Bitcoin.
Source : Coinglass
While this is a bullish sign, it also implies that the influx of long positions has put pressure on shorts, leading to significant liquidations.
Therefore, this doesn’t entirely rule out a short-squeeze scenario but could serve as an entry point for a bullish reversal, generating excitement among buyers.
Read Bitcoin’s [BTC] Price Prediction 2024-25
Overall, with $61k confirmed as support and renewed optimism from long positions, bulls are likely to hold $62k next, which could lead to a rally towards $64K.
However, for this to materialize, closely monitoring short sellers is essential.
