Bitcoin Prices Could Surge Amid Rising Oil Tensions, Predicts Arthur Hayes

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Arthur Hayes, co-founder of crypto exchange BitMEX, has predicted a potential surge in Bitcoin prices if tensions in the Middle East continue to escalate, pushing global oil and energy prices higher.

In his recent blog post, Hayes outlined the relationship between rising energy costs and Bitcoin’s value, predicting that in the event of an attack on major oil and gas fields by Iran in its conflict with Israel, oil prices would spike, driving up the cost of all other energy substitutes.

Hayes argued that this surge in energy prices would also significantly impact Bitcoin’s fiat value. He described Bitcoin as “stored energy in digital form,” implying that as energy becomes more expensive, Bitcoin’s worth in fiat terms would naturally increase. He added that while mining profitability may fluctuate, Bitcoin’s decentralized network would adapt accordingly, with difficulty changes balancing the hash rate in response to rising energy costs.

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Bitcoin and Energy Markets: A Historical Perspective

To support his argument, Hayes pointed to past oil crises between 1973 and 1982, when commodity prices, including oil and gold, soared dramatically. During that period, oil prices increased by 412%, while gold surged by 380%, illustrating the strong correlation between energy markets and assets used as stores of value. While Bitcoin itself has not been tested in a major oil crisis, Hayes noted that the cryptocurrency has demonstrated patterns similar to commodities during periods of inflation, suggesting that it could react similarly under current global conditions.

Hayes stated that even if Middle Eastern oil supplies were disrupted, Bitcoin’s blockchain would continue to operate as intended, unaffected by geopolitical events. According to him, Bitcoin would not only retain its value compared to energy but would also experience a significant rise in its fiat price.

Market Reactions and Safe-Haven Assets

Despite a drop in oil prices earlier this week, with West Texas Intermediate falling by 3.7% to $71.09 per barrel on October 17, Bitcoin has climbed over 8% in the same period, surpassing $68,000 for the first time since July. Gold has also hit an all-time high, reaching $2,711 per ounce, as investors flock to safe-haven assets in response to both geopolitical tensions and uncertainty surrounding the upcoming U.S. election.