Bitcoin could be on the verge of reaching a new all-time high by the fourth quarter of 2024, according to a report by 10x Research. The report highlights that a combination of historical trends and current market dynamics point to the possibility of a significant price rally in the coming months, with the potential to surpass Bitcoin’s previous high of $68,330.
According to the report, Bitcoin has a strong track record of rallying in the final quarter of halving years.
In both 2016 and 2020, Bitcoin posted impressive Q4 returns of 58% and 168%, respectively.
Data from CoinGlass suggests that Bitcoin has delivered positive returns in eight out of the last eleven years between 2013 and 2023, with an average gain of 88% during these periods. Based on these historical patterns, there is a 73% chance that Bitcoin will experience a significant rally before the end of 2024.
Markus Thielen, founder of 10x Research, pointed to a few key factors that could trigger this upward momentum.
One of the most significant is the anticipated FTX payout, which could inject $5–$8 billion into the market. This influx of liquidity, combined with expectations that the U.S. Federal Reserve may further cut interest rates, is likely to fuel bullish sentiment in the market, pushing Bitcoin’s price higher.
Thielen also noted that Bitcoin’s seasonal performance tends to improve from October through March, aligning with past bull market cycles. Bitcoin has already demonstrated resilience throughout 2024, and if current trends hold, it could see a parabolic uptrend in the final quarter.
CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju added that Bitcoin is currently in an accumulation phase, positioning it for a potential breakout. Ju emphasized that, much like the 2020 halving cycle, Bitcoin could initiate a substantial rally in Q4, with whales expected to play a pivotal role in driving price action.
With historical data, market liquidity, and macroeconomic factors all aligning, Bitcoin could be on track to surpass its previous all-time high, making Q4 2024 a potentially transformative period for the cryptocurrency.
