Analysts at Bernstein, a well-regarded research and brokerage firm, have reiterated their prediction that Bitcoin could reach new all-time highs between $80,000 and $90,000 if Donald Trump wins the U.S. presidential election next month. This analysis emerges as Trump gains his largest odds advantage since Kamala Harris accepted the Democratic nomination, according to Polymarket, a major prediction platform.
Trump has embraced cryptocurrencies this year, accepting crypto donations and outlining policies aimed at making the U.S. a Bitcoin mining hub. His proposals include appointing a crypto-friendly SEC chair and establishing a national Bitcoin reserve. Harris, on the other hand, has only recently addressed the topic, stating last month that while she supports the growth of blockchain technology, she would prioritize consumer protections.
Bernstein analysts Gautam Chhugani, Mahika Sapra, and Sanskar Chindalia predict that while bitcoin will do well in the long run regardless of the election outcome, a Trump victory would provide a significant short-term boost. In their view, bitcoin could surpass its previous high of $74,000 and enter the $80K to $90K range. Conversely, a Harris win could lead to a near-term drop, potentially bringing bitcoin into the $40K range, which hasn’t been tested recently.
While the analysts expect Bitcoin to react strongly to the election, they believe altcoins like Ethereum (ETH) and Solana (SOL) will remain relatively stable until after November, when there will be more regulatory clarity.
The role of Polymarket, a blockchain-based prediction platform, has also come into focus, with some speculating that it may have an inherent bias toward Trump due to his pro-crypto stance. However, the Bernstein analysts dismissed this, arguing that the platform’s liquidity and diverse user base make it more likely to reflect actual market probabilities rather than biases.
Trump’s odds on Polymarket have surged recently, particularly after a rally in Butler, Pennsylvania, where tech billionaire Elon Musk, who was in attendance, praised the platform for being more accurate than traditional polls. Trump now leads Harris by 7% on Polymarket, though national polls still suggest a close race.
