- Whale transactions for Bitcoin and Ethereum have sharply declined since mid-August.
- Current whale inactivity might indicate strategic waiting rather than bearish sentiment.
- Increased derivatives activity suggests robust market interest despite whale slowdown.
In recent months, cryptocurrency markets have witnessed a significant shift in whale transaction patterns. Large Bitcoin and Ethereum holders have made substantial moves impacting liquidity and market direction. This surge in whale activity has contributed to increased volatility and trading volume, suggesting a growing influence on price movements and market sentiment.
At the time of writing, the value of Bitcoin is $58,197.19, marking a 2.77% increase in the last 24 hours. The trading volume in this period has grown to $36.92 billion. On the other hand, Ethereum is priced at $2,361.08 with the 24-hour trading volume of $15.26 billion, which increased by 1.04%.
As per Coinglass data, the derivatives for Bitcoin trading volume has increased 28.05% to $71.88 billion. The open interest has increased by 3. 29% to $30. 81 billion. Options volume for Bitcoin has surged by 13.54% to $1.71 billion, although open interest remained only slightly higher by 2.16% to $20.83 billion. The long/short ratio for Bitcoin is equal, but it is slightly higher for Binance and OKX.
For Ethereum, the derivatives data shows that there has been an upsurge in this aspect, with volume rising by 30.71% to $26.42 billion and open interest increased by 2.41% to $10.66 billion.
Options volume for Ethereum has increased by 14.79% to $433.28 million, while the open interest has increased by 2.18% to $5.41 billion. Long/short ratios suggest the overwhelming confidence in the long side, especially on Binance and OKX.
According to Santiment, a top analysis firm, since mid-August transactions involving large sums of Bitcoin and Ethereum have notably declined. This trend is particularly striking when compared to the peaks observed earlier this year. Despite this drop, the decrease in whale activity doesn’t necessarily indicate a bearish market but rather, it highlights the strategic patience of major stakeholders.
Cryptocurrency's whale transactions have seen a noticeable drop-off since mid-August
Bitcoin: -33.6% drop in $100K+ transfers since March/April peak
This isn't necessarily a bearish signal. Whales can be… pic.twitter.com/iGNRt2roPL
— Santiment (@santimentfeed) September 11, 2024
Decline in Whale Transactions
Bitcoin transactions involving amounts over $100,000 have decreased by 33.6% since their peak in March and April. In particular, daily there were 88,163 similar operations during that period. This number has slightly declined and as of mid-August stands at 58,539 per week.
Likewise, the number of Ethereum transactions above $100,000 has reduced by 72.5% lower than what they recorded in the March/April period. During the peak, Ethereum whale activity reached up to 108,596 weekly transactions, while this has reduced to 29,864.
Market Sensitivity and Whale Behavior
This decreasing number of whale transactions may signal a period of consolidation or strategic holding by major stakeholders. While whale movements have historically influenced market direction, their current inactivity might reflect a more complex scenario.
Therefore, this current downturn in trading activity may not necessarily be interpreted as bearish sentiment but rather a sign of waiting. Whales are known to make their moves based on market trends, and they take action when there is either fear or greed in the crowd.
In terms of technical indicators, Bitcoin’s 1-week RSI reads 48.58, indicating that the cryptocurrency is currently in a neutral position. The 1-week MACD trading below the signal line suggests a bearish trend in the short term.
Similarly, Ethereum’s 1-week RSI reads 39.61, indicating that the market may be approaching oversold conditions. The 1-week MACD trading below the signal line further suggests a potential trend reversal or correction in the near future.
The recent decline in whale transactions for both Bitcoin and Ethereum, coupled with increased derivatives trading volumes, indicates a period of strategic recalibration among major holders rather than outright bearish sentiment. This shift in whale activity has introduced a phase of market consolidation, where large stakeholders are potentially adopting a wait-and-see approach amidst evolving market conditions.
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