The November FOMC meeting begins today. Committee members are overwhelmingly expected to deliver a 25-basis point interest rate cut.
This morning’s election results came too late to impact this month’s decision, analysts say. But the potential Republican sweep and resulting market moves leave December’s outcome less certain.
Fed funds futures markets were pricing in a 99.2% likelihood that the committee announces a 25bps cut tomorrow, per CME Group data. Odds of an additional 25bps cut in December are now at 67%.
Donald Trump’s victory could impact the Fed’s leadership and mission. Trump’s planned tax cuts and tariff increases, which he promised on the campaign trail, could, by some economist’s estimates, increase inflation and the federal deficit.
Plus, Chair Jerome Powell’s term ends in May 2026, giving Trump the opportunity to replace the central bank head. He has already said he will not reappoint Powell, and even mentioned wanting to fire him in 2018.
Trump will also have the opportunity to nominate a replacement for Fed Governor Adriana Kugler, whose term ends in January 2026.
Keep your ears open during tomorrow’s press conference, as we expect Powell will face questions about the election and how it impacts future policy. Buckle up; this week is far from over.
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