Following Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s indication of rate cuts in September, the Bitcoin price made strong advancements to $64,000, thereby breaking past its supply zone of $59,000-$62,000. Analysts are expecting a further rally to $70,000 and consequently a new all-time high ahead, however, Bitcoin could see a few weeks of consolidation before this happens.
Bitcoin Price Consolidation
The Bitcoin price has entered nearly six months of consolidation phase marking the longest period it has taken to break past a previous all-time high. However, BTC’s ascent to its all-time high before the Bitcoin halving in April was also the fastest, which shows that the current consolidation phase is well balancing out the earlier rapid price surge.
Popular crypto analyst Rekt Capital highlighted the re-accumulation phase stating that it still isn’t the longest in the cycle. Last year’s re-accumulation in 2023 during the formation of the breakout, lasted for around 224 days.
If historical patterns hold, Bitcoin could break out in October 2024, aligning with the typical post-halving price trends that suggest a potential breakout in late September 2024, noted Rekt Capital.
Bitcoin has been consolidating for almost 6 months
But this current ReAccumulation Range isn’t even the longest one in this cycle
From formation to breakout, the 2023 ReAccumulation lasted longer at 224 days
If history were to repeat, then Bitcoin would breakout in… https://t.co/nbVk8hAzj2 pic.twitter.com/FCaantr3zX
— Rekt Capital (@rektcapital) August 25, 2024
The inflows into spot Bitcoin ETFs also picked up pace following Powell’s rate cut hints suggesting that institutional participation in Bitcoin is once again gaining speed. Analysts at QCP Capital believe that the BTC price will continue to hover in the $61k to $70k range as the markets will wait for key indicators such as the US PCE inflation data as well as the US initial jobless claims for the week.
Furthermore, the market has been rallying on the expectations of the rate cut while restoring investor confidence as implied volatilities (IVs) continue to decline across all major terms.
BTC Open Interest Data
Following the move on Friday, the Bitcoin open interest hasn’t surged significantly in comparison to the previous instances. This shows the reduced risk of immediate full retrace since there are less number of long positions to squeeze out at the moment.
However, it will be important for the bulls to maintain the momentum ahead this week as the key level to hold is the previous local high of $62,800.
#Bitcoin Friday’s move didn’t elevate Open Interest as much as it had done in the past.
Makes this less susceptable to one of those instant full retraces as there’s less longs to squeeze out.
Still, I think it’s key to hold on to the previous local high at ~$62.8K to keep the… pic.twitter.com/IZ3Hxxcjlz
— Daan Crypto Trades (@DaanCrypto) August 25, 2024
Bhushan Akolkar
Bhushan is a FinTech enthusiast and holds a good flair in understanding financial markets. His interest in economics and finance draw his attention towards the new emerging Blockchain Technology and Cryptocurrency markets. He is continuously in a learning process and keeps himself motivated by sharing his acquired knowledge. In free time he reads thriller fictions novels and sometimes explore his culinary skills.
Disclaimer: The presented content may include the personal opinion of the author and is subject to market condition. Do your market research before investing in cryptocurrencies. The author or the publication does not hold any responsibility for your personal financial loss.
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