After its historic all-time high of over $93,000, Bitcoin, market participants analyze historical patterns to predict the duration of the current bull cycle.
According to analyst Rekt Capital’s detailed cycle analysis, the current bull run could extend into late 2025.
Rekt Capital Shares Consistent Pre-Halving Bottom
Bitcoin’s price movements demonstrate a mirror-like pattern around halving events. According to Rekt Capital, the 517-day pre-halving bottom has been a consistent marker across cycles.
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The 2016 cycle showed a 547-day pre-halving bottom and a 518-day post-halving peak. Similarly, the 2020 cycle bottomed 517 days before the halving and peaked 550 days after.
This pattern appears to be repeating in the current cycle, with Bitcoin bottoming approximately 517 days before the 2024 halving.
Following this historical precedent, the bull market peak could occur between September and October 2025, roughly 518-550 days post-halving.
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The striking similarity between the 2020 and 2024 cycles strengthens this projection, as both experienced identical pre-halving bottom timing.
Bitcoin Enters a Parabolic Phase
The cryptocurrency has now entered what Rekt Capital identifies as the parabolic phase, marked by the recent breakthrough of previous all-time highs.
This phase historically represents the most explosive period of price discovery, with several key characteristics:
The current phase is expected to last approximately 300 days, following the recent 200-day reaccumulation period.
Historical data suggests this timeline aligns with the overall post-halving period of 518-550 days.
Despite anticipated diminishing returns compared to previous cycles, projections indicate potential targets of $120,000-$130,000.
The reaccumulation phase, though longer than historical standards, has set the foundation for the current breakout.
The analysis indicates we’re only in the first few weeks of this parabolic phase, suggesting major upside potential remains.
Previous cycles show that while corrections occur during this phase, they typically serve as launching pads for further price appreciation rather than cycle endings.
Rekt Capital States When To Expect a Correction
The current cycle has progressed through several distinct phases that align with historical patterns:
- Pre-halving rally
- Pre-halving retracement (deeper than historical averages)
- Extended reaccumulation phase
- Initial parabolic breakout
Looking ahead, the parabolic phase is expected to demonstrate multiple weeks of upside before encountering its first significant correction.
The analysis suggests approximately 300 days remain in this final phase, based on the typical cycle duration of 518-550 days post-halving.
Rekt Capital emphasizes that this framework incorporates diminishing returns compared to previous cycles, particularly noting the reduced magnitude of potential gains compared to 2017 and 2020.
However, even with these conservative estimates, the analysis suggests substantial room for growth remains before reaching the projected cycle peak in late 2025.
The timing and structure of these movements suggest the current bull market has momentum remaining, though investors should prepare for periodic corrections within the broader upward trend.
This long-term perspective offers crucial context for current market participants, suggesting that despite reaching new all-time highs, Bitcoin’s bull market may be far from over.
