Bitcoin has displayed a remarkable pattern of growth following the U.S. presidential elections, particularly in the years 2012, 2016, and 2020. An analysis of its performance shows that, on average, Bitcoin has surged by more than 4,000% within 400 days after each of these election events.
One explanation for this trend is the alignment of key factors during these periods, according to a report from analysts at ETC Group.
They highlight two main influences: Bitcoin Halving events and the U.S. business cycle troughs, both of which coincided with these election years. Bitcoin Halvings, which reduce the supply of new Bitcoins entering the market, typically occur every four years and are known to drive up prices due to increased scarcity.
The U.S. business cycle troughs, or periods of economic downturns, may also play a role, as they tend to lead investors to seek alternative assets like Bitcoin, which can act as a hedge against traditional market instability.
:format(jpg)/cloudfront-us-east-1.images.arcpublishing.com/coindesk/ZN3APUEUXFDNXP6STCFDQSUPKI.jpg "Bitcoin’s Post-U.S. Election Performance: Insights from 2012, 2016, and 2020 4")
In each of the previous election cycles, these factors seem to have worked together, resulting in Bitcoin’s massive price gains.
With a similar alignment of factors occurring in the current cycle, some analysts are speculating that we could see another strong period of performance for Bitcoin in the wake of the 2024 U.S. presidential election. However, as with all markets, past performance is not a guaranteed indicator of future results.
