Bitcoin has been rallying strongly, nearing its all-time highs, with market dominance surpassing 65% for the first time since 2021. This price surge appears correlated with the increasing odds of a pro-crypto presidential candidate, particularly Donald Trump, potentially returning to office. As Trump’s favorability on Polymarket exceeds 60%, Bitcoin is increasingly being viewed as a safer investment, despite uncertain outcomes for altcoins.
Correlation Between Bitcoin’s Rise and Election Odds
Recent data from Polymarket shows Trump’s odds of winning the 2024 presidential election rising above 60%, coinciding with a surge in Bitcoin prices.
Trump’s crypto-friendly stance, such as advocating for a U.S. strategic Bitcoin reserve and supporting DeFi projects, contrasts with the current administration’s more cautious approach to the sector.
His potential return to office could lead to a more favorable regulatory environment for Bitcoin and the wider crypto market. Moreover, Trump’s likelihood of dismissing SEC Chairman Gary Gensler, a figure seen as skeptical of the crypto space, adds to this favorable outlook for the industry.
Why Bitcoin is Outpacing Altcoins
Bitcoin’s dominance in the crypto market has been steadily increasing for two years, currently standing at a three-year high. While Trump’s pro-crypto stance is likely contributing to this, the rise can also be attributed to Bitcoin’s resilience under either political administration. The Democratic party has generally not targeted Bitcoin directly, focusing instead on tighter regulations for smaller altcoins and DeFi projects. This uncertainty surrounding altcoins, particularly with Trump’s odds rising, may be pushing investors towards Bitcoin as a safer, more stable investment.
In summary, Bitcoin’s continued rise seems driven by a combination of political factors and its growing market dominance, positioning it as a less risky option amid electoral uncertainty.
