Analysts from JPMorgan noted on Tuesday that the prevailing market expectation for the upcoming US election favors Trump winning the presidency, the GOP securing the Senate, and Democrats retaining control of the House.
However, they caution that it’s too early to definitively predict the outcome, pointing out that a significant portion (70%) of analysts still believe Congress will remain divided.
JPMorgan on Trump Presidency’s Market and Policy Analysis
According to JPMorgan, investors maintain optimism regarding the market impact of the upcoming US elections. Only 12% of survey participants view the election as the primary threat to markets.
In their analysis of a potential Trump re-election, JPMorgan predicts a more assertive stance on foreign policy, particularly towards China. They anticipate increased use of Executive Orders in trade and investment to ensure American dominance.
Furthermore, JPMorgan suggests that under Trump’s leadership, there could be rollbacks in clean energy and environmental policies. They also anticipate the inclusion of experienced politicians loyal to Trump in his administration, contrasting with some earlier appointments of political outsiders.
Regarding international relations, JPMorgan foresees a potentially strained relationship between the US and the European Union under a second Trump administration, which could have implications for Ukraine.
JPMorgan’s Analysis and Predictions: US Presidential Elections 2024
JPMorgan emphasizes that governance strength and track record are crucial factors favoring Biden’s current electoral advantage. They anticipate a close contest hinging on a few pivotal swing states, akin to the tight outcomes of 2016 and 2020.
The bank underscores the potential impact of presidential debates in swaying undecided voters, though noting risks for both candidates associated with these events. Additionally, JPMorgan highlights the significance of Gen Z as a substantial but disillusioned voting bloc, posing challenges regarding voter turnout and necessitating tailored policy appeals.
Important: Please note that this article is only meant to provide information and should not be taken as legal, tax, investment, financial, or any other type of advice.
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