Ethereum’s performance in recent months echoes the conditions of past bull runs, with analysts pointing to a golden cross as the next catalyst for gains. With Bitcoin’s post-halving momentum, Ethereum may enter a prime period for long-term holding.
Analysts Favor Long-Term Holding as Ethereum Outpaces Altcoins
There have been some strong historical seasonal trends for Ethereum, most noticeable when it takes strong performance following the Bitcoin halving events.
Its price surges are correlated with certain time periods during the year between December and April, during which Bitcoin’s post-halving cycles tend to coincide with bullish momentum.
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Similar growth in past cycles has been seen in November 2016 and November 2020, and this trend might continue in November 2024 as well.
If previous patterns continue, Ethereum could be a profitable asset to hold during these periods.
Crypto analyst Max pointed out that Ethereum’s price swings are rapid and unpredictable beyond the seasonal context.
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Traditionally, during the bull run, these runs are quick and decisive, which leaves few windows for traders to make money off opportunities.
This shows that you’re supposed to have long-term holding strategies rather than short-term trading, particularly during cycles that have a Bitcoin halving.
Further supporting the case for holding ETH in certain key months, we compare Ethereum’s dominance vs other altcoins. This shows that the capital allocation shifts every cycle.
For analysts, its relationship with Bitcoin halving cycles has become a recurring theme as the price of the coin integrates broader insights.
Bitcoin halvings affect Bitcoin’s supply-demand equations and light up crypto market interest. This event is also a great time for major altcoins to benefit.
Approaches Golden Cross: A Signal for Major Gains?
On the daily chart, Ethereum is forming a golden cross with the 50DMA crossing above the 200DMA. Generally, this technical pattern is considered a bullish signal for the coming weeks.
In most periods, it has traditionally been a precursor to ongoing, upward price momentum in assets. Honey, an analyst, highlights a similar time in November 2023 when ETH was trading under $2,000.
After that golden cross, in just months the price doubled, adding to the possible weight behind the current setup for traders and investors.
The above chart depicts this golden cross on ETH’s price trend, marked in green as previous instances of this signal.
Such bullish triggers tend to lead to highly volatile rallies in the market.
Alt-Season Nears as Ethereum Set to Lead Amid Strong Fundamentals
As Bitcoin broke out in Q4 2020, many were skeptical of Ethereum because of its scalability challenges and lack of progress with Ethereum 2.0.
In a not-so-bullish atmosphere, it surged, breaking its all-time high in January 2021 and going 5.4x in just four months.
This showed that Ethereum is capable of pushing very well during uncertain and doubt-ridden phases. Particularly, phases involving unfavorable macroeconomic signs, and new year capital allocation.
As of press time, price action looked quiet, like the early goings of other cycles. Bearish narratives, however, were killing Ethereum, said Michael, and that was because its fundamentals were strong with scaling solutions on Layer 2s (L2s) and the network growing steadily.
They argue that Ethereum’s fundamentals were stronger than before and could propel a rapid re-rating early next year.
In past cycles, ETH/BTC has reached a ratio of 0.08 historically, meaning that if it occurred today, the ETH price would be $7,700. Therefore, the scope for gains is massive.
The emergence of Ethereum ETFs and rising institutional interest are unmistakably important contributors.
While just 1.8% of Bitcoin ETF flows, the $540 Million in Ethereum ETF net flows signals growing confidence. When Ethereum’s price goes up with its momentum, the narratives will also go positive.
This broader setup points to an imminent alt season, where nearly always Ethereum leads. With Bitcoin coming close to an important milestone of $100K, the moment is eminent when Ethereum could shine.
Increased institutional adoption, strong utility, and capital deployment to strategic advantage support the market back to its ETH/BTC peak price levels.
Following on from this, however, analysts still have faith in the medium- to longer-term viability of Ethereum as it builds, develops, and evolves as a leader in the cryptocurrency space.
