Super Sell Signal Hinders Bitcoin Bull Run

Bull Run Bullish

Bitcoin, not a bird or plane, but the cryptocurrency that’s been on a soaring journey, has hit a roadblock. The latest bull run, which lasted over a year in an upward trend, has encountered its first obstacle.

The rally came to a halt because of a powerful sell signal that acted like a strong barrier, and now Bitcoin might be at risk of turning in the opposite direction.



Bitcoin’s Mixed Signals: A Look at Buy and Sell Indicators

Bitcoin’s price journey has been marked by numerous buy signals since hitting a low in late 2022. The rally throughout 2023 saw BTCUSD surge by over 300%. However, on longer timeframes, like the monthly chart, sell signals persist.

One notable indicator is the 1M SuperTrend, a robust trend-following tool designed by Olivier Seban. Despite Bitcoin’s impressive climb, especially evident in CME BTC Futures, a singular sell signal on the 1M timeframe remains unchanged. This indicator, known for its reliability, continues to hold its ground, raising questions about the potential for a reversal, even as BTCUSD tests its boundaries this month.

Bitcoin smashes into SuperTrend resistance | BTCUSD on TradingView.com

SuperTrend Dynamics: Bitcoin’s Battle with Resistance

The SuperTrend, a tool displaying dynamic support and resistance lines on a price chart, plays a crucial role in signaling shifts in market sentiment. When the price breaks through this line upon closing, the sell signal transforms into a buy signal, and vice versa.

Presently, the SuperTrend highlights a critical downtrend resistance at $44,621, just a tad higher than December 2023’s closing around $44,200. Bitcoin has attempted to breach this resistance, but it continues to trade below this level. A significant victory for crypto investors would be a January close above the SuperTrend line. However, the possibility of a breakout might unfold later, possibly in February or March, following a period of sideways consolidation beneath the resistance.

Could this signal cause the mid-cycle correction? | BTCUSD on TradingView.com

SuperTrend Analysis: Bitcoin’s Path to New Highs

A closer examination reveals that the prospect of breaking through the SuperTrend on the 1M timeframe in BTCUSD may not swiftly lead to new all-time highs, contrary to initial expectations.

Historically, following a SuperTrend buy signal, Bitcoin has experienced a mid-cycle correction, setting it back by several months. However, this correction typically occurs after the buy signal has been generated. The question arises: could the current situation be different?

The charts referenced in this discussion were initially featured in the CoinChartist VIP 2024 preview and issue #32 titled “This Time It’s Different,” providing insights into the unique dynamics at play in the current Bitcoin market.


Important: Please note that this article is only meant to provide information and should not be taken as legal, tax, investment, financial, or any other type of advice.

 

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