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Pavel Durov, Telegram Founder and CEO, was arrested on Saturday by the French authorities. He has remained in detention pending formal charges and arraignment. Under French law, it is legal for the authorities to keep Durov for up to 96 hours, after which he must appear before a judge to determine his bail or continued detention.
Allegations Levelled Against Telegram’s CEO
It implies that, barring any last-minute surprises, Durov could regain his freedom by Wednesday. However, prosecutors have not formally charged the Telegram CEO but insist his detention is part of an ongoing investigation into various crimes planned and broadcasted on the instant messaging app.
Specifically, some of the alleged crimes include lack of moderation of Telegram, refusal to cooperate with the police authorities in the investigation of child pornography, drug trafficking, and money laundering, amongst others.
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The Franco-Russian billionaire has been accused of allowing criminals to plan, send and receive messages for these crimes and providing “cover” to them. Telegram has dismissed these allegations as absurd, maintaining the platform cannot be held responsible for the abuse of the app.
Polymarket Bettors Predict Slim Chances for Durov’s Immediate Release
Based on the weight of these allegations, popular decentralized blockchain prediction platform, Polymarket has given Durov very slim chances of being released from detention by Wednesday at the expiration of the 96 hours window.
Bettors on the platform believe the odds of Durov getting custody by the end of August stands at about 25%. A majority of wagers, 72% placed their bet on Durov being out before October. One dollar ($1) in USDC, a stablecoin will be paid out to shares for the “yes” side if the prediction comes to pass and $0 if it flops.
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Earlier on Sunday when the Polymarket created the bet, bettors had granted Durov a 50% chance. However, when it became obvious that the French authorities intended to hold him in detention and present him before a judge, the odds dropped sharply.
Market Impact and Reactions
The debate surrounding Durov’s continued detention has possibly triggered market sentiments. According to CoinMarketCap data at the time of writing, TON traded for $5.39 which represents a 4.00% decrease in value in the past 24 hours.
Investors and industry stakeholders will keep a keen eye on what the French authorities will do by Wednesday when Durov will likely appear before a judge.
