Donald Trump has taken a 9-point lead over Kamala Harris on Polymarket, one of the top prediction markets tracking the 2024 election.
Trump sits at 54.0%, while Harris trails at 45.4%. This gap is one of Trump’s biggest leads since Harris entered the race.
It follows his rally in Butler, Pennsylvania, the same location where an assassination attempt was made on his life in July.
Musk’s rallying cry and Trump’s Ulbricht pledge
Trump’s rally featured Elon Musk, the billionaire founder of Tesla. Musk’s speech and strong backing of Trump seem to have given the former president a serious bump in betting markets.
During the Butler rally, Musk made it clear that he believes Trump is essential to preserving the Constitution and the freedoms Americans value.
His call to “Fight, Fight, Fight!” echoed Trump’s words from July. Musk told the crowd that the Democrats, especially Kamala Harris, were dangerous to free speech and gun rights.
Trump, meanwhile, took the opportunity to renew his pledge to “save” Ross Ulbricht, the Silk Road founder serving a double life sentence.
Ulbricht’s story has become a rallying cry for libertarians and crypto enthusiasts who see him as a victim of government overreach.
By bringing up Ulbricht, Trump was clearly trying to continue appealing to a specific crowd — those who believe in freedom, privacy, and decentralization.
Polymarket, a platform that uses blockchain to track prediction markets, reflected the effect of this rally. Traders responded quickly, with Trump’s odds shooting up instantly.
Polymarket’s growing influence
Polymarket itself is also in the news. The platform recently started a new funding round, wanting to raise $50 million for future growth, including a potential token launch.
Earlier in the year, Polymarket secured $70 million across two rounds of investment. General Catalyst led a $25 million Series A round, and Ethereum creator Vitalik Buterin took charge of a $45 million Series B round.
Polymarket’s prediction market on the presidential election has become one of its most popular offerings, drawing traders from all over.
As more money flows into the platform, the odds will continue to change and reflect market sentiment until the election in November.
National polling, however, shows a different picture. Over there, Harris has 52% of the vote compared to Trump’s 47%.
Her lead is especially strong among women, where she holds a 15-point advantage, polling at 57% versus Trump’s 42%.
Trump leads by 5 points among male voters, with 52% of men backing him compared to 47% for Harris.
Regional and demographic insights
Looking at regional breakdowns, Harris leads in the West and Northeast. In the West, she’s up 58% to Trump’s 40%, and in the Northeast, she has a 55% to 43% lead.
Trump, however, leads in the South, where he’s ahead 51% to 48%. In the Midwest, the race is nearly tied, with Harris at 50% and him at 49%.
Demographically, Trump holds a huge lead among white voters, with 54% backing him. Meanwhile, Harris dominates among African American voters, holding 71% of that vote, and she also leads among Hispanic and Latino voters with 61%.
Voter motivation shows a big difference between the two camps. Only 10% of Harris supporters are voting out of disgust with other candidates, compared to just 5% of Trump supporters.
On the major issues, Harris outperforms Trump in several areas. She leads on healthcare, education, and environmental policy, with 52% to Trump’s 36% in each category.
She also has a big lead on race relations, with 50% to Trump’s 35%. Government accountability is a bit closer, with Harris leading 47% to Trump’s 41%.
Trump leads on immigration and national defense. Fifty percent of voters say Trump is better on immigration compared to 39% for Harris.
He also leads on national defense with 48%, while Harris sits at 41%. On economic issues, job creation, crime, foreign policy, energy, and deficit management, the two candidates are nearly tied.
The race is especially tight in swing states. Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin are all showing extremely narrow margins between Trump and Harris.
In Pennsylvania, Trump’s support has held strong, especially after Biden’s exit from the race. In Arizona, Trump has a 2-point lead, and Georgia is moving in his favor as well, a state he lost in 2020 but is fighting hard to win back.
Michigan is a toss-up, with endorsements playing a big role in swaying voters.
