Geoffrey Kendrick of Standard Chartered suggests that Spot Ethereum ETFs might receive approval by May 23. If greenlit, these ETFs could usher in a substantial $45 billion influx within the initial year.
According to Standard Chartered Bank, Spot Ethereum exchange-traded funds (ETFs) might still secure approval by their original deadline of May 23. Despite doubts from other experts, the bank remains optimistic about the possibility of approval within the specified timeframe.
Standard Chartered Bank Predicts Approval of Spot Ethereum ETFs on May 23
Geoffrey Kendrick, head of forex and crypto research at Standard Chartered Bank, maintains his view that spot Ethereum exchange-traded funds (ETFs) could still be approved by their original deadline of May 23. Despite acknowledging it as a non-consensus view, Kendrick remains optimistic about the potential approval and estimates that if approved, these ETFs could bring in $15-45 billion in inflows within the first 12 months. This estimate is based on the same logic applied to Bitcoin ETF inflows.
Earlier predictions by Kendrick suggested the likelihood of spot Ethereum ETF approval on May 23, primarily due to Ethereum’s classification by the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) not as a security in its legal actions against crypto companies. Moreover, the recent announcement by the London Stock Exchange to accept applications for exchange-traded notes backed by Bitcoin and Ethereum in Q2 further strengthens Kendrick’s belief in the approval of ETH ETFs by the SEC on May 23.
However, Kendrick acknowledges that most commentators disagree with his prediction. Notably, Bloomberg senior ETF Analyst Eric Balchunas lowered his expectations of spot ether ETF approval in May to 30%, down from 70% in January. Similarly, the Polymarket predictions platform decreased its expectation to 28% from 74%.
Despite skepticism from other experts, Kendrick remains optimistic about the May 23 deadline and foresees significant inflows to Ethereum driven by ETFs, similar to the pattern observed with Bitcoin ETFs following their approval. He estimates that spot ETFs could drive inflows of 2.39-9.15 million ETH in the first 12 months post-approval, equivalent to roughly between $15 billion and $45 billion.
Kendrick Predicts Higher ETH Prices if Spot Ethereum ETFs Approved
Geoffrey Kendrick of Standard Chartered Bank suggests that if spot Ethereum exchange-traded funds (ETFs) are approved in May, the price of ETH could surge to $8,000 sooner than initially anticipated. Kendrick now expects ETH to reach this milestone by the end of 2024, two years earlier than previously predicted. Additionally, Kendrick has set a price target of $14,000 for ETH by the end of 2025.
In Kendrick’s analysis, he suggests that ETH would likely maintain pace with Bitcoin (BTC), with the current price ratio of 5.4% persisting throughout 2024. Given Standard Chartered’s projection of BTC reaching $150,000 by the end of 2024, this implies a corresponding level of $8,000 for ETH. Looking ahead to 2025, Kendrick foresees the ETH-to-BTC price ratio returning to the 7% level seen in 2021-22. With Standard Chartered estimating a BTC price level of $200,000 by the end of 2025, this would suggest an ETH price of $14,000.
Kendrick highlights the similarities in estimated inflows for BTC and ETH as a percentage of outstanding coins in circulation. For BTC, the estimated inflows range from 2.2-6.7% of total coins in circulation, while for ETH, the equivalent percentages range from 2.0-7.6%. Kendrick attributes slightly wider ranges for ETH due to its marginally higher volatility compared to BTC.
Kendrick Foresees Ethereum’s Enhanced Competitiveness Post-EIP-4488
Geoffrey Kendrick of Standard Chartered Bank highlights Ethereum’s recent Dencon upgrade, which notably reduces transaction fees on Layer 2 networks. Kendrick believes this upgrade enhances Ethereum’s competitiveness in the cryptocurrency market.
He predicts that the significance of the “bridge” category will grow following the Dencon upgrade. Kendrick also anticipates Ethereum’s future evolution towards gaming and tokenization. He foresees substantial demand driven by existing Non-Fungible Token (NFT) and Decentralized Finance (DeFi) channels.
Kendrick emphasizes the potential for real-world industries to transition to Ethereum-based setups, citing them as “proof of concept” examples. He expects significant developments in these areas by 2025-26, indicating a promising trajectory for Ethereum’s adoption and utility.
Important: Please note that this article is only meant to provide information and should not be taken as legal, tax, investment, financial, or any other type of advice.
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